Most Americans are probably wondering if they’re going to get hammered by another brutal respiratory virus season this fall. The good news? Right now, things look surprisingly manageable.
COVID-19 activity has peaked and is declining across many U.S. regions. Sure, emergency department visits and hospitalizations remain elevated, but the national percentage of positive lab tests is dropping. That’s actually encouraging. The virus isn’t completely gone—it’s hitting kids aged 0-4 hardest in emergency departments, while adults 65 and older are still getting slammed with hospital admissions.
COVID-19 is declining nationwide, but kids under 5 and seniors over 65 are still hitting emergency rooms hard.
Epidemic trend modeling shows declining transmission in multiple states as of May 2025.
Seasonal influenza is basically taking a nap. Activity remains low nationwide as of late September 2025, which is typical for this time of year. Hospitalization and death rates are minimal for the late summer period. The 2024-2025 flu season officially ended, and trend monitoring won’t resume until fall 2025.
At least health officials published recommendations for the 2025-2026 seasonal vaccination, emphasizing people should get shots before cases inevitably climb.
RSV activity is also low nationally and in key reporting states. Emergency department visits are sitting below transmission alert thresholds—what experts call “off-season lows” since May 2025. When RSV does strike, it primarily targets infants and young children, with older adults representing a secondary risk group.
RSV deaths are rare, thankfully. New monoclonal antibodies and maternal RSV vaccination are recommended to protect infants entering the upcoming respiratory virus season.
Emergency department visits serve as the primary indicators for tracking all three viruses. COVID-19 still shows elevated visits among children 0-4 and adults 65-plus, while influenza and RSV levels remain below seasonal alert thresholds.
Hospital resource use gets monitored constantly, with bed occupancy rates tracked for potential surges.
Public health dashboards track weekly positive test percentages to signal increases or declines. COVID-19 test positivity continues declining, matching falling case rates. Data comes from state hospital networks through syndromic surveillance systems.
The bottom line? This fall might not be the respiratory disaster many feared.
Hospitals maintain robust diagnostic laboratories to process virus tests and ensure accurate, timely results for proper patient care.
